:Product: 0801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug,
04 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 558 km/s at 01/0611Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 01/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/2018Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1386 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 146
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20
