:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug,
05 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 02/0527Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 01/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/0039Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 620 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 Aug, 04 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (05 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 146
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  006/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/25
