:Product: 0804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 04/0345Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/0826Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 794 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (05 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (06 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 142
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  009/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/25/25
