:Product: 0805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 05/0611Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/0439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/0211Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 629 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 156
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  007/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20
