:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 06/0830Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
06/0049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1412Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 811 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Aug), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (08 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 158
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  010/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  009/011-022/032-021/026

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/35/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/70/60
