:Product: 0807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 476 km/s at 07/0711Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/2103Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 752 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Aug), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day one (08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 151
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  009/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  022/032-021/026-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/40
Minor Storm           35/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    70/60/65
