:Product: 0808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 08/2052Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 08/1648Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 08/1638Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 659 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Aug) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 148
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  006/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  021/028-014/018-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/50
