:Product: 0809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 712 km/s at 09/0645Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 08/2335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 09/1154Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 450 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Aug), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (12 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 140
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  018/050
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  038/055
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  017/018-013/018-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/40/30
Minor Storm           25/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/40
