:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 839 km/s at 10/0606Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/0148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/1007Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3694 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Aug,
12 Aug, 13 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 153
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  027/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  013/018-014/015-013/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/35
