:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 10/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/1251Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6325 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Aug, 13 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Aug). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13
Aug, 14 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 146
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  014/015-013/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/35/30
