:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 694 km/s at 12/2016Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 12/0530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
12/0705Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3163 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14
Aug, 15 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (13 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 152
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  017/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  013/012-008/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/45/45
