:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (14 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed reached a peak of 710 km/s at 13/0250Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
12/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1439Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8355 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug) and
quiet levels on day three (16 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    50/45/45
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 140
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 140/145/150
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  012/ 014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  008/010-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/10
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/45/20
