:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug,
17 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 14/0615Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/1420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/0048Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3824 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 130
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  017/ 015
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  008/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/20/20
