:Product: 0815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug,
18 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 15/0827Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 15/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/0003Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4262 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Aug, 17 Aug) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (18 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 123
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  013/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  006/005-006/005-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/45
