:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 481 km/s at 16/0544Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1446Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 9365 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (18 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (19 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    20/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 122
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 120/115/110
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  006/005-009/012-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/45
Minor Storm           01/20/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/50/70
