:Product: 0820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Aug,
22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 842 km/s at 20/0549Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 20/0028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0048Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 537 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (23 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    15/15/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 120
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 120/125/125
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  016/ 019
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  012/014-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/20
