:Product: 0821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (22 Aug, 23 Aug)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (24
Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 672 km/s at 21/0638Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/1036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/1946Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1125 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    15/20/25
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 121
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug 125/125/130
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20
