:Product: 0822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (25
Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 778 km/s at 22/0600Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/2339Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 876 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (25 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    15/20/25
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 136
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 138/145/140
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/50
