:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug,
26 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 22/2356Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 23/0004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/2316Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 967 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (24 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    35/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 143
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  006/005-010/012-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/50/55
