:Product: 0824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug,
27 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 455 km/s at 24/0531Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
24/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/1754Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 24/1945Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1495 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Aug). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (25 Aug, 26
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     50/50/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 152
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 152/152/155
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  010/012-011/015-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/55/25
