:Product: 0825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 25/0855Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 25/0915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
25/1231Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 25/1415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1860 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug). Protons greater
than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     85/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 175
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 152/155/155
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  011/015-009/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/25/25
