:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 441 km/s at 26/0446Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0402Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11 pfu at 26/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 368 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (27 Aug), have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (28 Aug) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (29 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    60/60/65
Class X    10/10/15
Proton     95/10/15
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 202
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug 200/200/205
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  007/ 008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  009/010-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/25
