:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 29 0005 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 28/2149Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/2357Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8 pfu at 28/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 349 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Aug, 31
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (30 Aug). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on day one (29 Aug) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    60/65/65
Class X    10/15/15
Proton     50/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 232
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 235/240/240
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  008/008-006/005-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/30
