:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 445 km/s at 29/0500Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
29/1741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/0227Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 29/0500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 368 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (30 Aug), have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (31 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (01 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/15/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 222
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 225/230/220
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  006/005-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/25
