:Product: 0830RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 433 km/s at 30/0950Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
30/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/0802Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 30/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Aug, 01 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (02 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (31 Aug), have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (01 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (02 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/15/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 317
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 220/215/210
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  007/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/20
