:Product: 0901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 676 km/s at 01/2039Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at
01/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/2031Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 01/1010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 414 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Sep). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (02
Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    60/60/55
Class X    20/20/15
Proton     60/10/10
PCAF       Yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 202
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 205/200/195
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 143

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  009/ 008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  039/055-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/20
Minor Storm           35/15/05
Major-severe storm    50/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/10/15
Minor Storm           10/25/30
Major-severe storm    85/50/25
