:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 695 km/s at 02/0801Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 01/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 01/2359Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 01/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 291 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 187
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 185/185/182
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  009/ 016
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  028/046
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  018/024-007/008-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/35
Minor Storm           30/05/15
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/25/50
