:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 806 km/s at 03/0403Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 02/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 02/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (05 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(06 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    50/50/35
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 180
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 180/178/175
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  025/ 034
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  007/008-008/012-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/50/60
