:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (06 Sep) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 686 km/s at 04/2105Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 05/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/0802Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 793 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (08 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    55/40/40
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 149
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 140/140/138
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  020/025-018/028-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    60/70/50
