:Product: 0906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep,
09 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 06/1806Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 06/1407Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 06/1440Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 560 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (09 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 146
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep 140/135/130
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  021/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  018/028-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/25
