:Product: 0907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep,
10 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 858 km/s at 07/0607Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/1937Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 388 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 133
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  017/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  009/012-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/25
