:Product: 0909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep,
12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 09/0612Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 09/0645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/1837Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1417 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Sep, 11 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 121
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  010/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20
