:Product: 0910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep,
13 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 10/0829Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 09/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 09/2127Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 991 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Sep) and quiet levels on
days two and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    25/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 119
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  015/ 018
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  010/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20
