:Product: 0911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep,
14 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 11/0327Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/1339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0436Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 790 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Sep), quiet levels on
day two (13 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 115
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 118/120/125
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  012/ 013
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  011/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  007/008-006/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/40
