:Product: 0912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 12/0835Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/0221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/0938Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1080 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Sep), unsettled to
active levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 114
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 115/120/115
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  007/008-015/018-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/50/50
