:Product: 0913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 12/2219Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 13/0132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1230Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1132 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Sep) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 118
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep 120/115/115
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  016/020-013/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/50
