:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep,
17 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 14/2042Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 14/1916Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/1735Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1572 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 122
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 125/120/125
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  015/020-011/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/25
