:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep,
22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 521 km/s at 18/2146Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5020 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (21 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (22 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 160
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  006/005-012/015-019/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/40
Minor Storm           01/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/40/60
