:Product: 0922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep,
25 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 22/1948Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 22/1110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
22/1054Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1547 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (25 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 172
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 172/168/165
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  014/015-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/20
