:Product: 0923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep,
26 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 22/1052Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 22/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 22/2337Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 690 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 171
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep 168/165/160
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  012/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20
