:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep,
27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 627 km/s at 24/0257Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/0727Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/2045Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 593 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 184
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  012/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20
