:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep,
28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 25/0347Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/1223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0829Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 679 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 170
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 170/165/165
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  006/005-008/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/40
