:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep,
29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 500 km/s at 25/2222Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
25/2211Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1254 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 165
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  008/008-013/018-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/45/40
