:Product: 0929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 29/0622Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 29/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 29/0701Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 336 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 186
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 180/180/175
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  013/015-009/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/45/30
