:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1152 km/s at 02/2130Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 03/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 03/0240Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7331 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (04 Oct, 06 Oct)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    60/55/55
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 170
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 170/165/165
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  030/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  023/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  015/018-014/018-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/55/45
