:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 04/0734Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 03/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 04/0213Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 14337 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (05 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (06 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(07 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 158
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  020/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  014/018-012/015-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor Storm           15/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/05
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    55/45/75
