:Product: 1005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 829 km/s at 04/2133Z. Total IMF reached 55
nT at 04/2248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
04/2308Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 23594 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Oct) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Oct,
07 Oct, 08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 148
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 150/155/150
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  016/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  012/015-015/018-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor Storm           10/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    45/75/65
