:Product: 1006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (07 Oct, 08 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 652 km/s at 05/2359Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
06/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1446Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 17944 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (07 Oct, 08
Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Oct). Protons
greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one and two (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    40/40/35
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 133
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  017/021-015/018-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           30/25/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    75/65/25
