:Product: 1007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (08 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 733 km/s at 07/0049Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 07/1152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
07/1006Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 10521 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (09 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (10
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 131
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 130/125/122
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  017/021-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    65/25/20
