:Product: 1008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (09 Oct) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (10 Oct,
11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 08/0154Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 07/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/2313Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4951 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (10 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    10/25/25
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 120
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 120/125/125
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  009/008-006/005-010/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/35
Minor Storm           05/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/50
